Everything from naked short selling, to government intrusion, granted  monopolies, fiat currencies and a host of other commonly accepted screwball behaviors have created market manipulation to such an extent that market prices are no longer market prices. They are manipulated market prices which amounts to a price point decided by the few government connected or Wall Street criminal money managers.

The small investor who wades into these market manipulations without foreknowledge, is toast.

Thinking a market is not manipulated means we have to ignore all of history. Any chance an investor with connections – usually government connections – can twist the rules or ignore them and engage in market manipulation and get a way with it, will see manipulation of all kinds unfold. Names like Jay Gould – famous for bear raids that look trivial today, or Jesse Livermore, or of course that famous bootlegger Joe Kennedy – all made their fortunes through market manipulation.

Still the markets functioned largely accurately determining prices. Now that function has succumbed to the market manipulation and the few that wield the levers of finance from their offices in Washington and New York – at the same time!
All of the current Obama regimes ministers or Czar’s are fresh cropped from Wall Street banks named Government Sachs, J.P. Morgan, or Citigroup.  There is no debating the incestousness except it goes way beyond that into full on unification.

Stock Market or Any Market - Manipulation Top to Bottom Corruption

There are no more markets – only Market Manipulations

Only manipulations exist. 70%+ of all trading volume is robotic high frequency trading. The rest is manipulated hedge fund traffic and institutional, with a smattering of the small potatoes individual sheep there for the shearing.

Precious metals – gold and silver  or potentially platinum – have purportedly been outside of the attack zone because no one can print up or digitally issue hard coins or hard bullion. Except the COMEX market is one of the most manipulated markets via naked short selling of wheat, sugar, silver, and gold etc. that cannot and will not be delivered. Ever. No penalties. No foul. No market manipulation seen nor heard.

The S.E.C. is more than ignoring it, they seem to be complicit. Really, though, we would expect anything different. Government policing government works brilliantly as it always has, for the government and those tied in with the totalitarian beast, just ask the guy shot in the head by an errant policeman. The policeman was found to have acted within the lines of his job – as found by internal investigations.   Despite him killing an innocent, unarmed man.  We can expect nothing but a blind eye when government passes judgement on Wall Street market manipulation, just like all forms of intergovernmental abuse judgements.

Fortunately, we have options. Get out of paper investments and into gold, silver, and platinum in that order. Get land outside of the country in places like Panama, or Brazil. Get rid of all debt because debt attaches us to a corrupt system.

Then let the system collapse on itself, as corruption rots the structure. Watch the dollar collapse and the markets collapse. Watch the derivatives go worthless and take down any semblance of credibility the Wall Street institutions had or the markets they manipulate.

Let the market be manipulated, let the stock prices be manipulated, but do not let your wealth, your efforts, your savings, your freedom be part of the market manipulation. Wall Street must fall without crushing us beneath it.

SP500 Stock Market Crash No Depression Followed

Without government corruption and intervention, dynamism or recovery would return to the markets in all forms

The housing prices would sink to the required level for clearing the market. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 1-2x the average take-home salary of a two family household which I think is slinking around $60k pre-tax, and around $48k after tax. That leads to average home prices between $50k – $100k, requiring a further 30-40% drop from where we are now. Dropping that much more is unlikely with the government owning the market essentially for mortgages. The most depressed areas are already experiencing such drops with shadow housing inventories kept off the foreclosure rolls, that would otherwise further sink the average housing price to the market clearing level.

With government intrusion, the dollar will continue it’s downward trek in value until the sheeple finally convert out at the last moment into tangibles. Either that, or the China and Russia tag team might shove the diminished greenback off the forex ledge, then government’s power for intervening will crack along with the illusion of wealth and prosperity we have all grown accustomed to. Thing eggs splattering on a hard floor of reality for the image of the dollar crashing.

The other possibility, though dim, is actual revolutionary conquest by the forces for freedom within the U.S.

This may shape up as a surprise passage of the Ron Paul bill for auditing the Fed. Then a firm and invasive audit of the Fed’s corrupt system will have to be carried out by the G.A.O. and all the dirty laundry aired, along with trials, jail time, and destruction of the corrupt Federal Reserve system. Entertaining, productive, and exciting as this process might be, I also think it incredibly unlikely. Wish I could believe that peaceful methods could restore order for this generation and destroy the monopoly bankers and their fake wealth.

The unfortunate fact is that only force will stop the evil force pervading the system.  This makes the depression stock market and commodity market prediction involve the variables of government intrusion, revolutionary push-back, and eventual economic stagnation.

Predicting Depression for the Stock Market and Commodity Market

1. Both the stock market and commodity markets will see closures before or during 2012 because of some form of violent disruption.
A. U.S. government created fake terrorist attack within the U.S. is very likely.
B. U.S. government sponsored attack on Iran, Pakistan, etc. could launch a larger scale conflict with Russia, China, or their allies.
C. Conflict with Tiawan against China, or even the former Russian satellite states.
2. U.S. secession or revolution movements begin evolving into violence with the offensively attacking police forces, or military of the U.S. government or federalized state, city, county governments. Pittsburgh’s G-20 meeting showed this in process.
3. International banker government bodies such as the U.N., New World order tools will be employed against the U.S. economy and citizens, possibly shutting markets down and turning to a new currency.

Generally, stock markets world-wide will be bad places for preserving or enhancing wealth. Productive farm land will be a better place to invest but outside the U.S. perhaps.

Intermarket Relationship for Gold to USDX for Stock Market Crashes

As the above Zeal chart shows, gold prices glitter with a dollar crash in the form of the USDX. Nearly a perfect long range correlation between gold prices rising and the dollar sliding. Profits are greater than the inflation slide in the dollar value. Meaning, prices generally are not rising with the gold price though that will eventually change. Jim Rogers of commodity billionaire fame believes that while gold will tag $2000 per ounce, other commodities are a better value. I could not agree more.

Eventually, general commodities will soar way beyond their inflation adjusted peak because of the global ice age that is already here.

The SP500 still has legs to run, even if it might look more like a wobble than a sprint. With $2 trillion or so in cash sitting in funds who have itchy “buy” trigger fingers , there is plenty of fuel for more liquidity excitement above today’s price of perfection.
Gold prices have stretched their legs above the moving averages based partly on rumor and less on the fundamentals of the True Money Supply and credit contractions. Perma bull speaking here, so I cannot be painted with the gold hater brush like Dennis Gartman, or anyone else talking down gold prices from the $1000+ shelf.
Fortunately, I bought in early enough that all the gold moves are still in profit territory. My hope is that anyone reading this is in this same boat riding the gold profit rapids with me.  There will be a floor put in, because China and Russia and the OPEC countries are nailing the gold price much higher than when fundamentals alone levitated gold at $800+.  Now the Sovereign Funds can keep gold prices anywhere they want them, so long as it is north of $800 per ounce. My best guess is that gold will sustain above $900, before it sees its’ next high in the $1200 area.

Where is the Gold Price Floor?

Soon though, we  will all discover what that floor is. Within a few months, end of Q2 10 at the latest, gold, as well as most of the commodities and the general markets, will be sucked into a liquidity vortex. Then the current floor for gold will be defined. Not the current low point for the U.S. stock market, nor even commodities, just the wide swath of stocks that have been relentlessly marching higher along with the king of coin, the mother of money, the magical monetary metal, the ruler of all who do not possess it, the fever producing mother lode: GOLD.

After this washout, then will be a great time to buy gold. It will not be the time to go short the market. Too late for that. Unless we buy a short fund and can sit tight for even 6 months or more, going short has fools gambit all over it.
Inflation will begin in earnest as Bernanke and the other Banksters pump liquidity in biblical proportions.

Just as Robert Precter begins looking 100% correct, the mask will come of the true intent of the Central bank swindle: destroy the constitution, destroy the currency, destroy the country.
Depending on how the brewing revolution unfolds, they may not get a hat-trick. All up to us.

Why Buy Gold Now?

Buy gold now for the safety of it, not the profit. Buy gold now so you have something left over after the conflagration of the stock market, bond bubble, and currency corruption runs the due course.  Buy gold today, and tomorrow, and future tomorrows only if you understand that buying gold is not a profitable move from every point forward, though it is never a fully money losing move. Never.  Buy gold for sanity. Do not buy gold for selling gold later at a huge profit.

Buy gold for solvency because that is the one promise gold has always kept even while floundering on delivering a fortune, it has delivered from the depths of impoverishment that fiat currencies always promise, and always lead to.

Markets are staying steady. That is a recipe for a big downside surprise in this environment.  Put options hedging for all markets anyone?

Why a Crash in the Stock Market and Crash in the Commodities Market?

Intermarket analysis where we compare different markets that trend together.  The small caps rising versus the large caps falling, or gold and oil confirming a trend by rising together, or better still the stock market rising and commodities falling.  These are general stock market crash indicators.

Like 2008, when an epic stock market crash occured, the commodities market also belly flopped with it. However, the more normal relationship that has help up historically is the commodities market rising while the stock market crashes and vice versa. The only way we get cross market crashes is when the Federal Reserve crime syndicate – yes, that is my official opinion! – pulls the rug of liquidity out from the whole financial system, other than their boys. Then everyone not connected to Bernanke or the Fed’s hind end gets mega flushed down the  ol’ stock market crash, commodity market crapper.

Intermarket Relationship for Gold to USDX for Stock Market Crashes

The above chart from Zeal – where they do some first class analysis – shows a relatively constant Gold price to USDX relationship. When this gets out of whack and they move together, get ready for a liquidity driven reversal, as sure as night follows day.

Even more accurate for predicting the crash – stock market or commodity market – is with the commodities versus the SP500 index.

SP500 Index for Predicting Stock Market Crash

The above lousy compressed chart for the SP500 shows the whipsaw in the market around 2000 and 2008 when the phrase STOCK MARKET CRASH could be heard from even the Cheering Nimpho Babes Channel. That much truth they will tell. Confession here – I like CNBC and credit them with bringing excitement and solid news to the front. Of course they cheer, they are supposed to!

CRB Index for Commodities Reveal the Crash-Stock Market and Commodities Market!

But notice the commodities market CRB Index below…

Commodities Market Crash-Stock Market Predicting!

The commodity markets began their downleg a full few months before the stock market began to get testy and drive lower. The the Fed and Treasury got together – Paulson and Bernanke – yanked the liquity plug on the whole stock market and commodity market along with sendng Lehman down the tubes. I think all of the companies that were going to fail should have failed and perhaps the markets would have suffered even worse.

At least then, the rebirth of the stock markets would have been real. This is all a liquidity driven rush up, not a fundamentals driven one with PE’s and PEG ratios suggesting we could lose another 70% to get back to deep recession norms of 8 on the PE side. Instead we are feasting on PE’s in the mid double digits for suspicious earnings at best. Have any banks really been positive cash flowing!!!?

Only if you include a gun barrel earnings windfall from the American tax victim / payer.

A crash this way cometh. The intermarket analysis says anytime betwen today and the beginning of Q2 2010. Then we will get our hyperinflationary buzz going and gold will truly begin it’s breakout.

Hold on tight!